Southampton Banter Archive March 05 2015

 

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05 Mar 2015 17:22:36
I thought I'd try to sort out this Europa league qualifying place thing . However after studying the possible outcomes from teams finishing in certain cups and league positions for quite some time, I developed a throbbing headache . I have come to the conclusion it would be easier to work out the number of stars in the sky in your head! I'm not sure even the authorities working it out have got a clue themselves .

Believable2 Unbelievable0

05 Mar 2015 11:40:54
Alright brothers, I'm hoping one of you might help me work out these europa league mechanics.

From what I’ve understood, there are three different spots: 5th position in the league, league cup & FA cup. Chelsea have won the league cup, so that means 5th and 6th position in the league get places. Everything is clear up to that point. However, I read this on the premier league website and it got me confused…

“If the FA Cup winners finish in the top four, their UEFA Europa League place goes to the runners-up. However, if the FA Cup winners finish outside the top four, their UEFA Europa League place goes to the next-highest ranked team in the Barclays Premier League (nominally the seventh-placed team).”

Would that mean that if the FA cup winners finish outside the top 4, both they and the 7th placed team would get spots? That would make 4 spots in all. Weird. And what if the FA cup final was, say, Liverpool vs Arsenal, and they both finished in the top 4? Would the third available Europa league spot got to 7th position?

A place in Europe in 7th position could be a big thing for us.

Believable3 Unbelievable0

05 Mar 2015 16:46:15
I read it the same way as you Frenchiesaint. It's certainly complicated but it's possible that 7th place in the EPL could give a Europa cup place. Let's hope that it works out like that because personally I think that 7th is the best that we can hope for now although I'm open to being proved wrong.

Agree2 Disagree0

06 Mar 2015 13:52:11
You are too pessimistic - its called last 3 results bias - you assume that the last few results will be repeated for the rest of the season - we have a very high chance of putting together at least 5 or 6 wins from the remaining games and the other teams have a high chance of not doing so well - my guess is we land 5th. We still have an 8:1 chance of making the top 4 according to the collective wisdom of the bookies - that is still a decent chance.

Agree1 Disagree0

06 Mar 2015 14:51:50
So the bookies say we have a 1 in 8 chance of making 4th place. That surely means that there are 7 other teams with that same chance. I think we can discount Chelsea and Man City so that leaves 5 plus Saints going for 3rd/4th place. So Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool and Spurs are the obvious candidates plus 1 other from Stoke, Swansea and Wet Spam. Surely if those 8 teams are battling it out for 4th place it also means that the same 8 teams are battling for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th place. Therefore according to the bookies we are possibly looking at 8th place at the end of the season

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06 Mar 2015 15:14:12
Hope you don't mind a dippy blonde clearing things up on europa qualification.
Firstly it is correct that 5th and 6th currently qualify.
Ip a team from the top 4 wins the FA cup the runners up will take thier spot.
If a team outside the top 4 wins the fa cup the place will obviously go to the FA cup winner unless they finish 5th or 6th in the prem in which case the place will go to 7th placed in the prem.

all clear so far!!!!
However what happens if Everton win the europa and qualify for the champions league by that route. Would that mean that champions league qualification only goes down to 3rd place? which would of course mean that only 4th and 5th plus the fa cup winners would then qualify for the Europa

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06 Mar 2015 15:39:47
No TeeJay - the higher up the table the higher your probability of landing in places 1-4 in the table - so Chelsea and ManC are almost 100:1 certainties. The ARSE & MANU are next as odds on favourites (just for MANU) - then comes Liverpool - then SPURS & SAINTS - both the same on ~ 8:1 against - so realistically there are 4 teams for 1 4th place - that's 4:1 on a flat field - then add the current positions in and you get the rest of the odds - hence Spurs and Saints at 8:1.

Its a good gauge though because millions are bet on the outcome and bookies employ lots of stats graduates to create these odds models.

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06 Mar 2015 18:21:27
Well you've baffled me with your figures. I still say that if Saints are 8:1 there must be 7 other teams who could finish 4th but what do I know. No wonder I can never pick a winner at the bookies

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07 Mar 2015 00:35:16
Europa goes to 5th, league and fa cup winners.
If both winners and runners up of the cups have qualified for champions leagueor europa then their places get handed down to 6th and 7th.
Chelsea won the league cup, spurs runners up so almost certainly 6th will get a spot.
Fa cup next so will be interesting to see the next round of fixtures. Arsenal v man u being a pivotal fixture for europa league quaqualification.
As for champions league, a fifth team would be eligible to play in the competition from England if an English club won it.

Fu2 is right. In horse racing you don't get eight horses running all at eight to one. There are favourites (city and Chelsea), and outsiders like us. Swansea are technically still in the 'race', and they would be even higher odd, maybe 100 to one one?

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