16 Feb 2018 10:24:29
I'm starting this new thread for those who want to take part in the discussion about the run-in to the end of the season for the bottom half of the table, further to my article posted earlier on the rumours page of this site. It would be great if you could read it and post your thoughts on this thread.

Just to be clear, I've set up a new thread to help focus on this topic and not on the usual comments about who's to blame for our predicament.

My thoughts on the run-in are set out in the article so little point in reiterating here.

Gregg has replied on another thread that with our current points to game ratio we would finish with 36 points which will not be enough to stay up in his view.

I think you're probably right. Although the cut off may be as little as 34 points, its more likely to be 36/ 37 points.

What does everyone think the cut off points total will be? Who will be in the bottom three.

1.) 16 Feb 2018
16 Feb 2018 13:14:19
I think west brom are nailed on with Huddersfield to go down which leaves us fighting with Stoke to stay up. The next 5 games I personally feel we need at least 3 wins. We just need to play gabbi in the hole behind carillo (would prefer it was Austin but hey ho) there's our goalscorers with jwp right as he's in form plus we need his deliveries and boufal left we need him he frightens defenders with his dribbling and would open space for others. Then we could have lemina and romeu holding. Come on mp just go for it or we're going down if we try n play it safe.

2.) 16 Feb 2018
16 Feb 2018 13:46:10
There’s an article on the BBC sport website that ties in with this thread as questions whether the old ’40 points for safety’ saying actually tallies up to what happens in the league. In short, the answer is no – each season is different but quite often you would need fewer points to finish 17th in the league.

They also show the results of a Computer program called Gracenote that simulates matches a million times to calculate a stat based guess of who’ll go down and the points required to stay up. Gracenote guessed a points total of 38 points is more than likely to be enough to stay up.

With teams as tight as the bottom 10 goal difference is going to be very important to when deciding final placings. Of the bottom ten, we have the joint 2nd best goal difference on -12 with West Ham. Stoke have -26, Huddersfield have -24, West Brom -19 and Palace and Swansea are on -17. Brighton are on -14 but with their tough run in, I expect that to deteriorate.

3.) 17 Feb 2018
17 Feb 2018 09:57:41
Firstly Figo and if I didn’t say before, it was a really good article. I think MP’s prem points to game ratio is around 0.96, which equates to around 36 and a half points so I rounded down.

My biggest concern is stoke have improved a little since the manager change, as have most of the other clubs. I have calculated all prem games based simply on my predictions. In my final league table WBA are bottom, the Huddersfield, then saints, stoke and Brighton all on 37 points, with stoke going down on GD. Problem is I think I have been bias.

4.) 17 Feb 2018
17 Feb 2018 17:51:47
Thanks Gregg, and SaintChris as well as I didn’t say this in the posts on the rumours page.

Its definitely hard to be impartial. Stoke I’m not convinced by. They won their first game under Lambert but have since drawn 2 and lost 1 so I think they remain vulnerable. Given all the reports of events at the West Brom training camp I’m hoping they remain at a low ebb as well. I think these two will struggle to get out of the drop zone.

Its down to that last place for me. Could be anyone of us, Huddersfield and Brighton if everyone else continues to maintain an upturn in form and fortune.