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01 Jan 2024 10:32:29
Happy New Year everybody! It has been a pleasure posting with you. As an expat that does not get to see many games, it is great to hear what is going on from those closer to the action.

Reading some rumours about strikers and wingers coming in.

@Eds, any rumours with substance?

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

{Ed002's Note - Fabio Carvalho (AM/LW) He has no clear future at Liverpool, certainly in the short-term so a loan to perhaps Southampton or Leicester would be best for all. Liverpool would also consider him as a player they could let go in any part exchange transaction.}


1.) 02 Jan 2024 09:17:28
Thank you Ed002.

Hearing we are in the market for at least 1 striker e.g. Ings and/or Biovski and an AM or winger e.g Carvalho or Diallo. Is this abou right?

{Ed002's Note - Yes but much will depend on the summer and if promotion is achieved.}


 

 

19 Dec 2023 10:48:55
Jan rumours suggesting we could see
KWP out and Ben Johnson in
Che out and Ings in?

Would you take that scenario?

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

 

 

14 Aug 2023 15:26:17
Curious on who people think we should sell or keep out of Mara, Aribo, Lyanco, Bree, Perraud and Sulemana?

Hearing rumours that Onuachu may be off back to Genk with a swap deal for a right winger (think we are already strong here with Tella and Ameyaw).

Plus ABK going back to Germany. Then Holgate coming in on loan as a replacement (plus Downes for JWP). Maybe even Mccarthy to Everton.

50m spent on a quality GK, CB and Striker is what I think we all want now, with no more out the door. Then I think playoffs is achievable.

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

1.) 14 Aug 2023 18:24:01
I would keep sulemena if he is willing to fight and perraud is a good player and should be strong at this level. The others could go and I wouldn't be too upset although lyanco will give you passion, although I would play him as a dm not a cb


 

 

31 Mar 2023 17:57:59
If you are curious what Saints need to stay up, it is probably 36 points, which is 13 from our last 10 or 3 wins and 4 draws.

This is based on an analysis of the min needed to survive over the last 10 seasons and final table projections based on the avg. points this seasons and the last 6 and 10 games.

Can we do it? If we avg. the same points per game over the season or last 10 games then no. If we maintain our form in the Selles era, then potentially yes.

This would give us 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in our next 9 and needing a point on the last day to make it.

Saints are top of the bottom 9 clubs over the last 6 games. The other teams hit 13% fewer points than their season average, whereas we hit +62%. We will need that trend to continue, to have a chance.

Going to be a thrilling finale, either way and hope the stats are useful.

Here is a reasonable best case scenario:

Wins: Palace, Fulham and Bournemouth
Draws: West Ham, Forest, Newcastle and Liverpool
Losses: Man City, Arsenal and Brighton

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

1.) 06 Apr 2023 16:05:31
If you're really curious as to what Saints need to stay up I think we can say an absolute miracle


2.) 08 Apr 2023 19:56:45
At this point, I agree with you!


 

 

10 Mar 2023 13:51:50
Hey, I have followed this thread for years and really enjoyed all your comments but never chipped in. As an expat, I am not close enough to the action to give much value but as a stats geek, I thought would share a few nuggets to give us a glimmer of hope.

Of course, we are clearly up against it for relegation and our odds are around 65% on Opta and in the betting odds.

However, in 9 of the last 10 seasons. 36 points or less have been enough. 4 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses to get us to 36 is tough with our fixtures but possible, with a little luck.

Over the last 10 games (with a dubious manager for 7), we were two points ahead of Leeds, four for Bournemouth and 1 for Everton. Keep that up and we will stay up, with an improved goal difference.

With Alcaraz hitting form, better team spirit and some new faces, you never know!

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

1.) 10 Mar 2023 22:58:55
Welcome my friend.

For many of us ardent Saints fans, some of whom have supported this club for half a century, the forum provides a form of mental health therapy. Knowing that we are not alone watching the tragic decline of our club is somehow reassuring.

It is an emotional roller coaster - but to be fair, when you look at the insight of many of our posters they are so right.

So welcome and carry on - not everyone will agree with you but heh that’s life!


2.) 11 Mar 2023 08:53:40
Thank you for the warm welcome Millertime and I agree on the need for theraleutic rants!

I fully agree with your comments on the sad decline and poor decisions. I am from generations of Saints fans and have been there in the stands for the highs and lows of relegation and promotion, in this crazy emotional roller coaster. Now I just see it from afar.

I was quite optimistic this year, after a rare summer of spending but the red flags of lack of experience and goal scorer were clear to see. I work with data everyday but you never make a good decision on stats alone, without the wider picture.

Spending by spreadsheet was naive. Cortese had an analytical mind but saw the wider picture and picked Pochettino, SR didn't and we got NJ.

After the massive Leeds defeat, I said this is definitively over for Saints now but looking at the last 10 game stats, seeeing a cutting edge in the side from Alcaraz and a fighting spirit under Selles, there may be a little bit of hope. It's the hope that gets ya though!

The lack of a great GK like Niemi to save us a goal a game is a worry. At least we have JWP to get us a goal out of nowhere like Le Tiss could.

Looking forward to seeing all your match insights, over the last games.


 

 

 

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23 Feb 2024 07:41:10
3 thoughts on our current position

1. We are vulnerable playing out from the back and without Downes. Teams are no longer scared of us and we have lost momentum.

2. RM needs to mix it up and his single mindedness cnmcerns me. Against the press, we need to go long down the channels every now and then to make the opposition cautious.

3. Still, I am grateful for the exciting promotion chase. Earlier in the season, at the start of our run, the most likely scenario was a dull switching between 4th and 6th for 25+ games until the playoffs and probably losing to Leeds. Now anything can happen and every game matters.

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

1.) 23 Feb 2024 20:43:49
Well written post …
Well, written post .
Ive used the example of the WBA away game as an example …
I was really expecting a close game, but what I watched was a game where WBA sat back and let us play the ball around like a 6 a side friendly .
They never really pressed us, they never closed down. they literally let us play! Play
And that is exactly what happened for over 20 games, coupled with the non losing streak, coupled with the amazing scenario of playing none of the top clubs!

I watched the run, thinking, any coach worry his money will not allow us the freedom, they certainly won’t allow us the freedom to play suicidal passes in and around the box. I’m not sure I’ve seen so many dangerous passes in one game; to be honest there are more dangerous passes played by saints in one game than I see in a season .

So now Martins style has been broken, we are in trouble unless we change!
Hull pressed us superbly, they hunted us down, there was no sitting and watching us play with the ball!

Unless Martin changes tactics, we will only just make the playoffs .
as I posted before, unbelievable that we changed nothing ….


2.) 23 Feb 2024 21:50:08
Totally agree with what’s been written - nothing more to say other than watch and weep as Leeds turn things round against Leicester


3.) 24 Feb 2024 08:39:05
Hull took is apart, so as it stands I would rather be 4th and play West Brom in the first playoff and hope Ipswich beat Hull.

Second is still possible but only if we play our best team, learn to play against the press, win the 6 pointers and get a bit of luck!


 

 

18 Jan 2024 14:28:29
As our heads are all filled with potential PL promotion glory, I thought it might be interesting to look ahead and think what we might need for 100m + player sales.

I think we are wise to look for loans with options to buy now, so players can get to know our style and hit the ground running, if we get promoted.

My checklist and PL team is below. Value all your thoughts.

1. 40m for THB, Fraser, Downes, Rothwell
2. New CB for ABK, CC, Lyanco sales
3. 15m for new experienced CDM
4 15m for new CF + Onuachu sale
5. 10m for new LB/RB + Perraud sale
6. 10m for new experienced GK
7. 15m for New RW
8. 5m in for Aribo and Bree sales

4 2 3 1 example:


New CF/Stewart/Mara

Fraser/Sule AA/Alcaraz NewRW/Edozie

Downes/Smallbone New CDM/Charles

New LB/Larios New CB THB/Bed KWP

Baz/New GK

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

 

 

30 Dec 2023 10:30:42
I am absolutely blown away by our progress over the last 4 games. 9 points gained on Ipswich, 18 on the goal difference and we are now 5 points clear of Leeds and 14 ahead of 7th!

I was still believing we could get automatic promotion at 10 points off but wrote us off at 12 points away. Glad to be proved wrong!

If I was a striker or winger hoping to join a promotion team I would choose us over Ipswich or Leeds right now.

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

1.) 31 Dec 2023 12:51:45
I definitely agree that results and performances are stronger now and that confidence is high.

The Plymouth game was a 90 plus minute example of the best and worse of much of our season - plenty of first half possession but only one shot on goal, couple of needless yellow cards and Che wandering into offside positions with a Edozie bedazzling down the left flank. Second half, much more purpose going forward but having to use up one of our get out of jail cards courtesy of the lino. Then a wonder strike from Charley and a trademark Adam’s goal before a pantomime villain moment from Baz which set up a nail biting finish.

Another game of total domination decided by fine margins. The good news is that Baz is less likely to play silly buggers at the back and that ultimately it didn’t cost us points. That type of shoot our selves in the foot goal has been coming and we must learn from it because next time it may well cost us.

Looking past Norwich, the FA cup tie has come at a good time - Baz need a rest to refocus mentally. I think his development has been great and so give the lad a week off. I would like to see Fraser get a start too so maybe RM should rotate and rest a little bit also heed the lessons from the Grimsby Carrabo cup debacle.

Given my criticism of RM since the start of the season, I haven’t changed my mind completely about him - but I have to acknowledge that the run we are on is pretty amazing and therefore he must take a great deal of credit in the same way he gets blamed for poor performances.

So 2024 promises much but we must build on recent performances and I agree with SaintThatAKickInRheHeaf and SaintGGsythat we need to invest in a proven striker.

Happy New Year to Eds and fellow posters!


2.) 01 Jan 2024 00:43:30
Spot on millertime
Happy new year posters and Ed’s!

I fully understand about building from the back. but .
We build from the back .
get over the half way line, even near to their box .
then go back to the goalkeeper .
repeat .
although it was a howler from the GK
He was passed to at speed from way out, when the player had several better options!

But as you say, let’s get that error out of us now while we were 2-0 up

{Ed001's Note - Happy New Year to you rich and everyone else on here.}


 

 

23 Oct 2023 08:30:14
I have been crunching the numbers to give us some end of season projection, based on our avg points vs Top 8, Mid 8 and bottom 8 sides and remaining games.

It's tough news, as it stands, with an expected 73 pts and a 7th place finish.

Some will say our Top 8 performances have been unfairly low due to injuries, reckless play and post transfer window issues. Plus, we have key players coming in and RM sides or a new manager can finish strongly. Factor these in and expect 79-84pts or 3rd to 5th.

Others will point out we have had some lucky late goals against poor sides, with Tella, JWP and Adams contributing, RM is a Mid table manager and we could lose players in Jan. Factor these in and we are looking at about 69 points or 9th.

If you include both factors and consider the betting odds, super computer projections, squad value and form average, expect around 74-77 points or 4th to 6th.

I will run the numbers again after 16 games.

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

 

 

22 Oct 2023 10:57:22
After the Preston game, we go on an extraordinary 22 game run without facing a single side in the top 6!

With THB now settled and Stewart, Larios and Stephens to come back in, we have no excuses.

In March and April we face the big sides, that gives us a month to be settled after the Jan window.

The fixture list is very kind to us for the next 4 months. Let's get some momentum! COYR

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

 

 

 

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02 Jan 2024 09:17:28
Thank you Ed002.

Hearing we are in the market for at least 1 striker e.g. Ings and/or Biovski and an AM or winger e.g Carvalho or Diallo. Is this abou right?

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

{Ed002's Note - Yes but much will depend on the summer and if promotion is achieved.}


 

 

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02 Jan 2024 09:02:39
Completely agree with both comments.

Seems RM has fallen into the trap of trying to put all the best players on the pitch, even in their secondary positions. It may make some key players happy that they are not on the bench but not something to be playing around with, especially Mid season.

Also gives me a concern SR are considering selling KWP, so are trying Stephens in his position and then will get a replacement winger. This could cost us promotion, we need to keep our PL players.

While recent results have been positive, progress is needed. Thumping a team's B side with their head not in the game over the holidays is one thing, winning when teams are fighting for every point in the last 10 games will be something else.

We have Leicester, Ipswich and Leeds away in the final 20 games. Ipswich and Leeds have already played twice, so they have an advantage. The table going to be very close. We need to have our best players in their best position moving the ball forward with purpose to get promotion.

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

 

 

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26 Sep 2023 15:16:34
Great article and agree with all your sentiments.

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

 

 

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26 Sep 2023 06:51:12
Completely agree.

If we had a manager who could adapt our style to our team's strength, wouldn't they be rubbing their hands with glee. You have the tallest player in the league in Onuachu, fastest player in Sulemana, proven scorers in Adams and Tella.

I would be running the channels and crossing it to tall Paul. Playing long to hold it up or flick it on. Counter attacking with Alcaraz, Sulemana and Tella.

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

 

 

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20 Sep 2023 10:06:45
I completely understand your frustration. Getting beaten is one thing but tamely losing with a whimper is another.

I do believe we have a squad worthy of playoffs. The value of our squad on transfermarket and the bettings odds at the end of the transfer window both put us in the top 3.

What we have is a squad not playing to its potential - lacking leadership, lacking confidence and lacking a style of play.

I believe this is fixable but we need to make the changes required.

1. Stop playing out from the back 24/7. Especially for young players, lacking confidence, this is a risk.
2. Protect our back line from counter attacks, e.g. with Charles and Downes as holding midfielders or not pushing too many people forward with slow build ups.
3. THB needs Bednarek or Stephens alongside him.
4. Manning needs to step up or step aside. In time, Larios may take his place. Until then KWP could switch to the left and Stephens, Holgate or Bree could play at RB.
5. Alcaraz, Edozie, Sulemana and Adams could be an exciting front 4 on the break (plus AA, Stu and Stewart), we need to play to their strengths and mix up our play.
6. I understand players are disappointed after last year and not getting moves etc. We need to draw a line, move on and not indulge it. The best way to play in the PL is to get promoted.
7. If we need to get Al Pacino in to give a proper speech, let’s have a whip round!

I expected us to be languishing around 10th after the first 10 games. Saints and RM seem to start slowly but now is the time for a change of plan and attitude.

Over the next sets of ten we should be aiming to move up to 7th, then 5th, then 3rd and be knocking on the door of the top 2 or having the momentum going in to the playoffs.

This should be our goal and it is obtainable IF we make the changes required and players coming back like Larios, Stewart and Sulemena make an impact. Balls in your court RM and SR.

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

 

 

 

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24 Feb 2024 08:39:05
Hull took is apart, so as it stands I would rather be 4th and play West Brom in the first playoff and hope Ipswich beat Hull.

Second is still possible but only if we play our best team, learn to play against the press, win the 6 pointers and get a bit of luck!

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

 

 

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04 Feb 2024 06:55:48
Happy Birthday Millertime!

A win and Saints moving up into the automatic promotion places must have been a nice birthday treat.

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

 

 

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16 Jan 2024 08:19:27
Ha! It is working well so far!

Actually, if Saints and Ipswich could just beat Leicester 9-0, we would only be 4 points from top, I would take that!

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

 

 

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15 Jan 2024 16:55:32
I love the positivity but I am praying for a Leicester win. I would rather close the gap on second.

We still have Leeds and Leiciester away, which Ipswich will not have, after this, so every point could be precious.

A few months ago, my best case realistic scenario was 4th, so it is incredible to be thinking about automatic promotion.

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!

 

 

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10 Jan 2024 06:49:31
Would love to keep him. He might sign a new contract if we get promoted but get a good offer and we should sell.

Either way I think we need a new striker to replace Stewart. I have read that Ings has ruled out Championship clubs unfortunately.

Hope we have a few good names.

SaintThatAKickInTheHead!